No snow in the server room; Carry On…Morning Thoughts:
I tried to find some solace and warmth reading the papers over the weekend. I failed:
Michael Farr (Farr Capital): The rise of interest rates represents an under-appreciated risk in an environment of near unanimous optimism.
Jeffrey Palma (UBS): Given some of the uncertainties in the world, it seems pretty tough to believe that we can hold sustained levels of low volatility through the next year.
Chris Verrone (Strategas): There is too much complacency right now; you might want to look for a pullback.
Ben Borton (MM Capital): An upward move in implied correlation often precedes a strong downward move in the market.
Andrew Smithers (Smithers & Co): US Equities are 70% overpriced versus replacement value, at the current 20 times fading earnings.
Dave Rosenberg (Gluskin Sheff): It’s very dangerous to use the holidays as a guide to fundamental shifts in consumer attitudes.
Shirley Lazo (Barron’s): The S&P 500 dividend yield at 2% is too low. It smacks of a market top, where investors are willing to forgo yield because they feel they will make it up in capital gains.
Oh well. I hope you all had a blessed weekend celebrating Christmas, family, friends, peace, or whatever you enjoyed celebrating. I’d share details of my extended family all over for Christmas day at my home, but I am under gag order after spilling the beans on Thanksgiving!
What you should know first off this morning is that China raised rates 25 bips last night, and the futures are red. Considering the global coordination of economies since 2007, the raise in rates, which is expected to be the first of several in the coming months in China, is likely to spur rising rates elsewhere worldwide.
Oh, and Europe had a pesky flash crash this morning (thanks ZH). Thank goodness our market micro-structure has gone global. Fasten your seatbelts. I’ll see you in a few hours after I shovel out my driveway. I’m too old for this crap.