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The Emperor Has No Clothes; We Need A New Mousetrap

07

May, 2010

Some Thoughts:

15 Stocks fell more than 50% from high to low.

61 Stocks fell more than 20% from high to low.

Exchanges solution: Bust Trades > 60%


In my personal portfolio I own Phillip Morris (PA) and Boston Beer (SAM), makers of Marlboro smokes and Sam Adams beer. I was feelin’ allright when I stepped outside to grab a smoke and a brew (I do my best trading after a few  Sam Lights and a few Marlboro Reds). OK. I really didn’t do that. And I don’t really own those two stocks either. But if I did, then yesterday afternoon I would have smoked a pack and drank a case.

Phillip Morris High/Low/Last = $48.92/ $16.74/ $46.75

Boston Beer Co Inc. High/Low/Last = $63.17/ $00.01/ $55.43

Today’s action left us amazed, and we have been warning about this stuff since December 2008. Where do we even start? Yesterday afternoon and evening all the business programming focused on how the markets were in turmoil, and Greece this, and overdue correction that, and fat finger the other thing. They couldn’t even recognize the story, as even the business media doesn’t understand that the markets are a changed structure and beast. The story is not a key-punch error. The story is a failed market structure. The market failed today.

The market melted down and “liquidity providers” quickly pulled all bids. According to today’s Wall Street Journal, high frequency firm, Tradebot, closed down its computer systems completely, as did New Jersey’s own Tradeworx, who was so critical of our silly market structure comments in their SEC comment letter. By the way, if you don’t know who or what Tradebot is, it is the proprietary trading engine that used to be part of the BATS exchange. In fact the reason BATS was rolled out as an exchange to begin with was to lower costs and facilitate trades for Tradebot (Tradebot’s 1251 NW Briarcliff Pkwy Kansas City address is next door to BATS’s North Mulberry Drive address fyi). In the WSJ article Mr. Cummings said his Tradebot system was designed to stop trading when the market becomes too volatile, because he “doesn’t want to compound the problem.” Too bad he doesn’t understand that that was and is the problem. To make matters worse, while some high frequency firms shut down yesterday and pulled their bids, as we warned they would do for over a year and a half, other high frequency firms turned from being liquidity providers to liquidity demanders, as they turned around and indiscriminately hit bids like Randolph and Mortimer Duke.

We are just plain outraged, and think every investor and market participant in the USA should share this outrage. They were sold a lie. How many times over the last year have we all heard that HFT liquidity was a blessing that lowered costs and helped investors, and that it would be there in stressful markets just like the market makers and specialists they replaced were there? How many times have you read in the big media that HFT helped the markets perform brilliantly during the global meltdown in 2008 and 2009? We said it before and we say it now. Lies.

Not so long ago, if our markets experienced severe stress, and certainly a “fat finger”, human wisdom would intervene. Reasons for the stress would be ascertained, trading in affected stocks would be slowed or halted, stabilizing bids would be initiated as needed, and severe volatility would be dealt with in a calm and reasoned manner. Today, the human specialist model has been replaced by an automated market maker model. Our market structure has evolved. It has evolved, not by design,
or a well-thought and reasoned plan, but it has evolved to cater to masters of expensive technology, deployed unfettered by participants whose only concern is to squeeze out every last picosecond and fractional cent before they move on to other countries’ markets and asset classes. The for-profit exchange model at every chance sacrifices the protection of long term investor interests for the profitability of serving hyper-leveraged intraday speculators. By the way FLASH orders are still utilized at Direct Edge, but that is here nor there.

Today’s price swings in a great number of stocks highlight the inherent and systemic risk of our automated stock market, which has few checks and balances in place.  Once the market sensed stress, the bids were cancelled and market sell orders chased prices down to the lowest possible point. Investors who thought they were protecting themselves with the prudent use of stop orders were left with fills that were far away from the closing price. In some stocks like our SAM example above, this was $0.01. We warned of the potential for HFT to behave this way when we met with and showed our regulators the NY Fed study that highlighted HFT’s vanishing act around stressful news announcements in the currency markets.

We read this in a recent comment letter to the SEC about HFT and couldn’t agree more: “When markets are in equilibrium these new participants increase available liquidity and tighten spreads. When markets face liquidity demands these new participants increase spreads and price volatility and savage investor confidence.”

The EXCHANGES’s response late yesterday was to cancel trades that moved by more than 60%. Yes 60%. SO if you bought a stock at $21, put in a stop-loss market order at $20 (expecting to get filled in a market decline of somewhere less than but close to $20), and got filled at $10 (yes this happened and worse), your trade stands! And if you bought this same company’s stock (that fell from $20 to $3 before closing back at $18) at $3 and sold it at $14 thinking you made a big profit, your buy is cancelled, you are short stock at $14, you have a loss, and the futures are green this morning. Inspires investor confidence, right? With this wise remedy and redress by our exchanges, along with their other maneuvers (stay tuned for our coming Data Feed White Paper), one can’t help but be confident in playing ball on this level playing field. NOT.

Today’s severe market drop should never have happened.  The US equity market had at been hailed as the best, most liquid market in the world. 
The market action of May 6th has demonstrated that our equity market has major systemic risks built into it.  There was a time today when folks didn’t know the true price and value of a stock. The price discovery process ceased to exist. High frequency firms have always insisted that their mini-scalping activities stabilized markets and provided liquidity, and on May 6th they just shut down. They pulled the plug, as we always said they would, and they even admit it in the papers this morning. We need a new mousetrap. This is not an isolated incident, and it will happen again.

Where we left off 4:00pm EST:

INDU                      10520.32                               -347.80

SPX                        1128.15                                 -37.75

CCMP                    2319.64                                 -82.65

Futures now at 7:00 EST:

DJA                         +73

SPA                        +11.20

NDA                        +20.00

Key Data out today:

08:30:                                                                     Unemployment Rate (9.7% expected)

08:30:                                                                     Change in Non Farm Payrolls (190k expected)

08:30:                                                                     Change in Private Payrolls (100k expected)

08:30:                                                                     Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (20k expected)

08:30:                                                                     Average Hourly Earnings (MoM=.1%, and YoY=1.8% expected)

08:30:                                                                     Average Weekly Hours All Employees (34.1 expected)

Since yesterday’s close, some key stories:

-          Cameron wins most seats as Brown signals fight to stay UK Prime Minister.

-          Senate rejects amendments to US Financial Reform Bill

-          What caused yesterday?

-          No other stories.

And movers after the close:

NANO +13.5% (earnings) , QCOR +9.7% (FDA panel vote) , VTIV +5.7% (to be acquired) . STEC +4.3%, MELI +4%, ACTI +3.4%, ATVI +2.4%, VR +2.1%, HTGC +1.4%, EGLE +0.3%, CIM +0.2%. BSX -2.1% (discloses DoJ request in 10Q) , MEE -1.4% (reactivates WV operations) . HANS -15.3%, GXDX -14.5%, SQNM -9.8%, XNPT -9.6%, DRWI -8.9%, ATNI -8.8%, MAKO -8.7%, HLIT -7.4%, WWE -7.4%, XOMA -6.9%, CLNE -5.6%, RST -3.1%, SD -3%, WTW -2.7%, PNSN -1.4%, LVS -0.2% .

Significant Movers This Morning:

It doesn’t matter; earnings don’t matter. Our regulators have decreed that stock valuation shall be determined by the whims of “liquidity providing” HFT firms armed by our new breed of exchanges.

Earnings Today:

It doesn’t matter; earnings don’t matter. Our regulators have decreed that stock valuation shall be determined by the whims of “liquidity providing” HFT firms armed by our new breed of exchanges.

Expected Earnings Later:

It doesn’t matter; earnings don’t matter. Our regulators have decreed that stock valuation shall be determined by the whims of “liquidity providing” HFT firms armed by our new breed of exchanges.

Significant Upgrades and Downgrades:

It doesn’t matter; earnings don’t matter. Our regulators have decreed that stock valuation shall be determined by the whims of “liquidity providing” HFT firms armed by our new breed of exchanges.

3 Responses to “The Emperor Has No Clothes; We Need A New Mousetrap”

  1. twsinvestments
    avatar

    You guys have been warning for months and months. Couldn’t have been more on point.


  2. Debunking Fat Fingered Excuses, Blaming HFT | The Big Picture
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    [...] -Sal Arnuk and Joe Saluzzi, Themis Trading [...]


  3. May 10, 2010 « PrefBlog
    avatar

    [...] Themis Trading blog has some good commentary on the May 6 Bungee Jump: The story is a failed market structure. The market failed [...]


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