Themis Thoughts April 28th, 2010

Some Thoughts:

By now, you have read or heard many reviews of yesterdays Goldman hearing.  Here is our take:

It appeared that the Goldman boys were stalling and purposely evading the questions.  In fact, Goldman hired a witness prep expert, K. Lee Blalack, who has been quoted as saying: “A well-trained witness can minimize exposure by simply running out the clock: “Long, thoughtful pauses followed by rambling nonresponsive answers can easily devour half of a member’s allotted questioning time.”

They frustrated Sen. Levin more than if he was only 5 minutes late for the early bird special at a Bob Evans restaurant.  Mr. Levin was obviously prepared but did we need to hear him say “sh*tty” so many times.  Maybe the banker who wrote “sh*tty” in the email was referring to how drunk he was last night or maybe he was asking his buddy if he wanted to take in a Mets game at  “Sh*tty Field”.

The young, smug banker, Josh Birnbaum, definitely added a few thousand Facebook friends and Twitter followers after that performance.  We sure hope his books are clean at his newly created hedge fund because you can bet that a fleet of black Suburbans will be descending on that place later today after those responses.

Watching the politicians and the greedy bankers go at it was the same feeling as being a Mets fan and having to watch the Yankees and Phillies in the World Series last year.  If only there was a way that they could both lose.

And finally, yes Goldman, we heard you, you are not a bookie, you are a market maker.  And to that, we say that at least in Vegas they give you a free drink before they take your money.

Yesterdays Goldman sideshow was good theater but the real show was going on European markets.  The VIX spiked over 30% as Greece was cut to junk and Portugal debt was knocked down a few notches.  The HFT “liquidity” in the market that we hear so much about seemed to disappear quickly.  We once referred to this market as the Jason Bourne market-  When Jason Bourne enters a room, the first thing he looks for are the exits to make sure he can get out quickly.  Looks like investors are beginning to look for those exit doors.

Where we left off 4:00pm EST:

INDU                      10,991.99                              -213.04

SPX                        1183.71                 -28.34

CCMP                    2471.47                 -51.48

Futures now at 7:30am EST:

DJA                        +39.00

SPA                        +5.00

NDA                       +8.80

Key Data out today: Get Ready. Phew!

7:00:       Mortgage Applications (actual -2.9%)

10:30:     Crude Oil Inventories (356.9 mb)

2:15:       FOMC Fed Funds Target Rate (estimate 0% to 0.25%)

Since yesterday’s close, some key stories:

–       Broadcom beats, outlook looks positive.

–       Aflac tops Wall St. on strong Yen.

–       Norfolk Southern Q1 profit beats expectations.

–       DreamWorks Q1 profit falls, but beats street.

–       JDA Software Q1 adjust profit tops street.

–       RF Micro Q4 results beat estimates, shares rise.

–       Microsoft signs Andriod patent deal with HTC.

–       U.S. Senate Republicans block bank reform bill again.

–       U.S. Consumer Confidence hovers near 2010 low.

–       Greece bans short selling for 2 months.

Significant Movers This Morning:

US – Upside
Symbol Name Last % Mrkt Cap Headlines
OC Owens Corning $31.83 6.81% 3,807
TLAB Tellabs $9.10 5.45% 3,317 Earnings
GLW Corning $20.65 2.63% 31,186 Earnings
DOW Dow Chemical $30.86 2.63% 34,637 Earnings
US – Downside
Symbol Name Last % Mrkt Cap Headlines
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings $41.50 -18.64% 925 Earnings
AMAG Amag Pharm $31.00 -15.72% 771 Earnings
RHI Robert Half $28.45 -9.39% 4,708 Earnings
MTW Manitowoc $14.10 -6.81% 1,978 Earnings

Earnings Today:

Ticker                     Estimate                 Actual

ABD                        0.01                        0.03

APU                        2.27                        1.59

AUDC                    0.04                        0.06

BCRX                     -.16                         -.06

BRY                        0.36                        0.38

BXP                        1.04                        1.08

CFL                        0.30                        0.48

CKSW                    0.09                        0.11

CMCSA                 0.30                        0.31

CRI                         0.44                        0.71

DHX                       0.04                        0.05

DOW                      0.30                        0.43

DSPG                     0.06                        0.11

DTG                        0.30                        0.76

DYAX                     -.15                         0.01

EEFT                      0.32                        0.32

EQT                        0.57                        0.65

FDML                     0.22                        0.35

FLWS                     -.02                         -.09

FR                           0.26                        0.22

GD                          1.51                        1.54

GIB                         0.24                        0.28

GLF                        0.29                        0.25

GLW                       0.42                        0.52

HST                        0.10                        0.09

HZO                        -.12                         -.29

JNY                         0.34                        0.47

LCRY                      0.09                        0.15

LL                           0.23                        0.25

MHS                       0.72                        0.73

MKTX                     0.17                        0.17

NSTC                     0.06                        0.09

NUS                       0.42                        0.48

OC                          0.15                        0.42

ODFL                     0.17                        0.21

PFCB                     0.48                        0.38

PX                           1.09                        1.09

RDSA                     1.29                        1.57

RGS                        0.31                        0.37

ROK                        0.51                        0.77

ROL                        0.18                        0.18

S                             -.17                         -.17

SAP                        0.51                        0.51

SII                           0.17                        0.19

SO                          0.44                        0.60

SPNC                     -.03                         -.03

TEL                         0.52                        0.64

TMO                       0.75                        0.84

TRCR                     0.21                        0.19

UGI                         1.44                        1.46

UMC                       0.05                        0.04

USAP                     0.16                        0.21

WLP                       1.66                        1.95

WTFC                     0.26                        0.41

WYN                       0.30                        0.34

XJT                         -.35                         -.73

Expected Earnings Later:

ABX, ACE, ACLI, ADEP, ADLR, AEA, AHL, AIZ, AKAM, ALL, AOL, ARII, ATI, AVB, AXTI, BDN, BEAT, BEC, BEN, BEZ, BIDU, BPFH, CACI, CASB, CASC, CATY, CBG, CBL, CBT, CCI, CDCS, CDNS, CERN, CFR, CINF, CLB, CLF, CLUB, CML, CMO, COG, CP, CRA, CRY, CSCX, CVD, CVTI, DAVE, DCOM, DDIC, DINE, DIVX, DRCO, DVR, DXYN, EEP, EFX, EGP, ENTR, EPIC, EQR, ESRX, ETH, FICO, FOE, FRME, FSLR, FRSV, FTI, FTNT, GERN, GG, GMCR, GSIC, GT, HES, HHGP, HIW, HL, HMN, HRS, IACI, ICAD, ICO, IDCC, IFSIA, ILMN, IMA, INET, IRBT, ISSC, ITC, ITRI, IVZ, JBLU, JMP, KAI, KALU, KEX, KRC, LEGC, LHCG, LNC, LOGI, LOGM, LOOP, LSI, LTFD, MANT, MBLX, MDCO, MDP, MEOH, MHO, MORN, MOSY, MPEL, MPX, MSO, MTH, NBIX, NEOP, NETC, NEWP, NMM, NOC, NSR, O, ODSY, OFC, OFIX, OI, OII, OIS, OKE, OPWV, ORLY, OZRK, POWI, PRTS, PZN, RA, RCL, RE, RNOW, RTIX, RVSN, RYL, SCI, SCOR, SEE, SEIC, SFLY, SFN, SIGI, SJW, SKX, SLAB, SPIL, SPN, SRCL, SRDX, SSYS, STNR, SUSQ, TAYC, TCLP, TESS, TGI, TIS, TLEO, TQNT, TRH, TRN, TSRA, TTEK, TYL, UMBF, V, VAR, VMED, VPHM, VRSN, VTR, WCAA, WIRE, WLL, WLT, WSH, XLNX, ZHNE.