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Intermediate-term Bullish?

13

March, 2009

I like 90% up days. It makes me want to buy dips.

The technical numbers and jargon (RSI, ADV/DECL, BREADTH, etc.) really do nothing more than help us fit pieces to the new puzzle. In lay terms, the market was so far below its moving averages, that the current market backdrop is simply that the long term equity stock holders are done with the fear selling.   Does that mean we go straight up? Ha. I wish! No, we will enter a period now in which we have to tread carefully, buy dips and not breakouts, and do everything we can to not rush up the livingroom stairs so that the “Home Alone” kid can hit us with the paint can.

The longer we can move upwards in price, or at a minimum not give it all back, the more short covering we will see in the short term. I am hoping that short covering makes the market move up 15% from the lows (we are kind of there), and that will draw in some long traders (maybe this happens over the next 3 or 4 trading days?), and ultimately even some institutional vanilla money (is there any left?). I think this can be a three week rally. But I do not want to be buying when the last vanilla money is back in. And I hope that vanilla entry money does not coincide with the April economic numbers, where we may be brought back to reality.

I hate being the last guy standing in musical chairs. And I am tired of the paint can.

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