I like 90% up days. It makes me want to buy dips. The technical numbers and jargon (RSI, ADV/DECL, BREADTH, etc.) really do nothing more than help us fit pieces to the new puzzle. In lay terms, the market was so far below its moving averages, that the current market backdrop is simply that the long term equity stock holders are done with the fear selling.   Does that mean we go straight up? Ha. I wish! No, we will enter a period now in which we have to tread carefully, buy dips and not breakouts, and do everything we (more…)

The most recent Fed flow of Funds report was just released – http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/ We use this report to calculate the Q Ratio which is a measure of estimating fair value of the stock market.  A figure of 1.0 is considered fair value.  For a reference point, during the dot com bubble, the market was extremely overvalued.  The q-ratio peaked at 1.8 in March of 2000.  In times of extreme bear markets (1929,1974, 1982), the q-ratio reached and bottomed at .30 Based on the latest value of net worth  (section B.102, line 32 ) and market value of equities (section B. (more…)